AI’s Consumer App Gap: Why We’re Waiting for the “2009 Moment”
The generative AI boom has cooled on consumer apps, but experts say we’re on the verge of a burst.
Despite the viral success of general-purpose tools like ChatGPT, the vast majority of generative AI startups are still monetizing through enterprise contracts rather than individual users. According to industry leaders, the consumer market is merely in an “awkward teenage phase,” and a true game-changing product hasn’t arrived yet.
The Platform Stabilization Phase
Chi-Hua Chien, co-founder and managing partner at Goodwater Capital, draws a sharp parallel between today’s AI landscape and the early days of the iPhone. In 2008, the Flashlight app was a massive third-party download. Today, that functionality is built into the operating system. Chien argues that specialized AI apps—particularly in video and audio generation—face a similar fate as open-source models from giants like Google and China democratize capabilities that once required standalone startups.
“We’re right on the cus of the equivalent to mobile of the 2009-2010 era,” Chien stated at TechCrunch’s StrictlyVC event. That specific window in mobile history birthed titans like Uber and Airbnb, but only after the platform stabilized. Chien believes we are reaching a similar equilibrium now, citing Google’s Gemini reaching technological parity with ChatGPT as a sign of maturity.
The hardware Hurdle: Moving Beyond the Smartphone
For consumer AI to finally “grow up,” experts suggest we may need to break free from the rectangular glass slab in our pockets.
“It’s unlikely that a device that you pick up 500 times a day but only sees 3% to 5% of what you see is going to be what ultimately introduces the use cases that take full advantage of AI’s capabilities,” Chien explained.
Elizabeth Weil, founder and partner at Scribble Ventures, agrees. She describes the current state of consumer AI as stuck in a middle ground, largely because the smartphone is not an “ambient” device. It limits the context-awareness required for truly intuitive AI. The industry is currently racing to build the successor device, whether it’s the rumored “screenless” pocket device from OpenAI and Jony Ive, Meta’s gesture-controlled Ray-Ban smart glasses, or wearable rings and pins designed to capture life without a screen.
Practical Use Cases vs. Social Sci-Fi
Despite the hardware race, not all future AI products will require new devices. Chien predicts the rise of a personal AI financial adviser customized to individual needs. Weil envisions a ubiquitous, “always-on” personalized tutor delivering specialized education directly through the smartphone.
However, the panelists remain highly skeptical of one emerging category: AI-powered social networks. Chien noted startups attempting to populate networks with thousands of AI bots interacting with user content. He argues this fundamentally misunderstands human psychology.
“It turns social into a single-player game,” Chien said. “The reason that people enjoy social networking is the understanding that there are real humans on the other side.”
Conclusion
The generative AI consumer market isn’t stalling; it’s maturing. We are currently in the “boring” phase of platform integration. The explosion of consumer-centric AI utility—mirroring the 2009 mobile boom—will likely come from specialized, deep-vertical applications and ambient hardware, not just chatbots. As the infrastructure stabilizes and hardware catches up, the等待 will be justified by tools that are seamlessly woven into our daily lives.
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