Elon Musk: The Bet That Pays When You Bet Against Him
Never bet against Elon Musk. That’s the popular saying among his fans. But on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, bettors are proving the opposite: betting on Musk’s inaction yields massive returns. Take David Bensoussan, who wagered nearly $10,000 that Musk wouldn’t form a new political party after threatening to during his rift with Trump. When Musk didn’t follow through, Bensoussan earned a 10% profit. His portfolio of 12 bets, including correctly wagering Musk wouldn’t buy MSNBC, would leave his White House job, and that Tesla would miss its self-driving deadline, has netted him over $36,000.
Musk dominates these prediction markets, ranking as the second-most popular betting topic after Trump, with 53 markets on Polymarket and 46 on Kalshi. His history of dramatic threats often not materializing creates fertile ground for bettors. While betting on Musk can win big, the evidence suggests that betting against his most publicized plans, especially threats, frequently pays off handsomely for the savvy investor on these platforms.
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